Many players will not know how preferential voting elections work. If you don't care about the mechanics of the vote, or predictions, then this is not the post you are looking for.
At a really high level, this is the vote for the popular followed by the vote for the least unpopular,
with an aim is that if your 'bloc' gets 40% of the votes, they should get roughly 40% of the seats.
First is the vote for the popular. Anyone with more than a quota is voted in; Surplus votes are transferred to the next candidate on the voting ticket. Rinse and repeat while candidates have more votes than the quota.
Next is the vote for the least unpopular. The bottom candidate is excluded, and votes are transferred to the next candidate on the voting ticket.
For more information about the specifics, this page refers to a Wright Single Transferable Vote system, which may be something close to what CCP used. They released the source code (which is the real voting system they will use), but
Now, preferential voting systems generally give expected and reasonable results for everything but the last spot. 'Compromise' candidates get elected here.
For those that are really keen, http://results.aec.gov.au/15508/Website/External/SenateStateDop-15508-VIC.pdf, from our most recent federal senate election. It is an election for 6 seats.
Trying (and possibly failing) to avoid the politics.
Bloc #1 with roughly 33% of the primary vote gets 2 seats (Major party)
Bloc #2 with roughly 33% of the primary vote gets 2 seats (Major party)
Bloc #3 with roughly 16% of the primary vote gets 1 seat (largest minor party)
Bloc #4 with roughly 3% of the primary vote missed out (medium minor party)
Bloc #5 with roughly 2% of the primary vote gets final seat. (don’t even know who these guys are)
Bloc #4 was a divisive party. Some loved them; Most really did not. Bloc #5 was voted in as a compromise.
For the other states, it was the party that got just short of a quota in their own right, generally Bloc#3 that picked up the last spot.
Back to Eve, we have several bloc's. My predictions:
- Mynna from null is all but a certainty, with several candidates being elected on his ticket. I don't think 'null bloc' candidates will have an outright majority, but current rules on last election would have resulted in nearly 4 candidates just on the Mittani's personal vote. With the combined ticket in it's forms and looking at CSM 7's results, I think they will be disappointed if they don't get a majority.
- The wormhole candidates will expect at least 2 seats. Nathan and James are the front runners.
- Ali Aras has made it on a sufficient number of tickets to be elected.
- At least one prominent blogger will be elected; at a guess Ripard.
- Trebor has the personal votes from last time to be re-elected.
- Mangala from RVB should be elected on the back of his corp
My crystal ball is far to murky to even guess at the remaining spots. However, I will be astounded if we are not surprised by who gets spot #14.