If I recall correctly, successful candidates will be announced at Fanfest, March 19-21.
My first thing I will look for is the total vote itself. Hearsay said that the vote is 30% higher than it was last year. If this is true, without knowing where those votes are going will make prediction even harder. I also see CSM voting as a proxy for player engagement, a weathervane.
Very Safe candidates
- Sion + Endie. Last year (and the years before), Goons have more than 2 quota. Sion will get in, and 'his' vote will elect another.
- Sugar Kyle. She had 91% of a quota last year. She is impressive, and is on the top of many ballots (where last year she was middle of the pack). I think Sugar will get a quota in her own right, even if there is an increased vote.
- Corbexx. Wormhole candidates had 1.6 quotas last year, spread roughly evenly across the field. This year, Corbexx will get more of the vote, and I think will increase the total wormhole vote (in raw terms if not in quotas). I think Corbexx will get a quota in his own right.
- corebloodbrothers. Provi block candidate from last year with well in excess of a quota. He should also get a quota as well.
- Steve Ronuken. Last year Steve was voted in at #6, close to a quota in his own right and received good preference flows. Most surplus that Sugar Kyle has will flow to Steve. Steve will also do better than average on transfers from other excluded candidates.
- Mike Azariah. Mike was voted in last year at #8. Highsec and visible via his blog, but lacking the endorsements of the candidates above. I think he will still get in, but he might suffer from other similar candidates being too popular.
- Cagali Cagali. Brave newbies should be able to elect a pilot, assuming their internal politics is going OK. You had a CSM rep resign last year, which will hurt your motivation, but you have a higher base vote than RVB.
Incumbents ( or groups) I see struggling to be elected
- Khador Vess. RVB have the numbers to vote, but last year, they didn't. Mangala Solaris started the CSM 9 election with a poor personal vote, and was voted in on preferences from others. This however is largely dependant on how motivated RVB is to vote for their own candidate.
- Xander Phoena. Last year, Xander more than doubled his personal vote from Goon preferences. I am unsure as to his ongoing relationship with Gentlemen's agreement, but Goons wont be voting him in this time.
No hopeIf all you did was submit an application to CCP, didn't bother with a post on CSM Campaigns thread , didn't bother with interviews until too late, you had better have a very motivated alliance behind you. If you really want to be a candidate for CSM 11, start posting on the CSM campaign thread mid November and attend every interview/candidate questionnaire that you can.
Other notes.There are many spots I have not filled into the mix. Some are block candidates, but by looking at last year's CSM, not all block candidates did well.
Some candidates are ranked 2 or 3 on some tickets, and as such won't initially make it. Reserve candidates are good to have for groups. I expect that this year, CSM will be have more inactive members booted, making casual vacancies, to be filled from these reserve spots.
As this is a 14 seat STV election, spot 14 will be somewhat of a lottery. I won't claim that luck is involved, but the result will look to many like luck.
Many bloggers are still talking about 2 permanent attendee spots. I expect this to be irrelevant for CSM 10.
From http://community.eveonline.com/news/dev-blogs/csm-x-candidacy-now-open/ , Summit can last up to 5 days and up to 10 members of the CSM will fly to CCP headquarters in Reykjavik, Iceland to participate in person.
Assuming all candidates attend at least one summit, 6 of them may attend both. Given some CSM 9's ability to have drama or be inactive, I will not be surprised if some candidates fail to attend either summit.
In my opinion, this change is largely because a couple of CSM 9 members were stand-outs and both CSM and CCP would benefit from them attending every time they are available.
I seem to spend a bit of time posting replies to Rhavas' CSM posts (https://interstellarprivateer.wordpress.com/2015/03/08/csm-x-predictions/)