Across 2 different market games, I have found that when a community gets on board with a speculation, they go overboard and overcompensate.
Today's topic is triggered by 'Bitter's comment'
Strontium Clathrates will become the bottleneck for ice that goes into Highsec POS fuel. Ok, this is something to see despite my earlier brushing off.
Glacial Mass: http://games.chruker.dk/eve_online/item.php?type_id=16263
- 69 Heavy Water
- 414 Hydrogen Isotopes
- 35 Liquid Ozone
- 1 Strontium Clathrates
- 151 Heavy Water @ 200 ISK , 0.4m3 / unit : 30K ISK, 60 m3 total
- 400 Hydrogen Isotopes @ 745 ISK, 0.1m3 / unit : 300K ISK, 40m3 total
- 151 Liquid Ozone @ 350 ISK, 0.4m3 / unit : 53K ISK, 60m3 total
- (new) 18 Strontium Clathrates @ 4,000 ISK, 2m3 / unit, 80K ISK, 40m3 total
- roughly 60% isk is ice, the rest is PI
Yea, we will notice. I will yearn for the days of POS fuel being 16k/unit. At today's prices, Stront will be adding 9% to the cost of blocks. https://www.fuzzwork.co.uk/blueprint/?typeid=4246
He also asked "Do you think that there's a large, previously unwanted, hoard of Stront out there somewhere?" There will be oodles of it out there.
This was a waste product of refining. Historically 500 ISK per unit, taking up 3 m3. (has become 2m3)
I just pulled down a C5 POS (currently for sale, we swapped a c5->c5 for a c5->c3) The strontium was the last thing to be pulled from the site, mostly because I was bored waiting for the tower to come down. We nearly left it behind, though in retrospective, maybe was worth hauling now.
It costs me 500 ISK/m3 for hauling out to my nullsec area, meaning it was not worth hauling.
Yes, there are large stockpiles out there, but even the largest stockpile wont last forever.
But ... who uses POS?
Wormholes do. Large towers, sometimes multiple towers. Citadels are coming, with a fitted medium citadel costing roughly the same as a fitted large POS, but with the ability to define when I am vulnerable, and no inherit fuel requirement. (No more CEO's stuffing up and letting the POS forcefield down)
Staging towers where there are no usable stations, especially in lowsec and null. These too will be a thing of the past.
Compression, refining, research and manufacture towers are OK for now, but we know that citadels are going to replace these soon. I don't know how much fuel will be required when that happens.
Eventually even moon mining towers will be replaced (possibly by something else requiring an equivalent fuel bill).
Vanity towers will also be replaced with citadels.
I see the net demand for fuel blocks going down instead of up.
PI demand will be fine as huge quantities of citadels are created and probably more than a few will be destroyed.
I am not sure of where the demand for ice is going to come from long term.
What happens next?
I have a broken crystal ball. Anything said here will be over-analyzed and send market speculation into wild over-corrections (or I will be ignored by the common consensus). I will say it anyway.
Many pilots sitting on their strontium stockpiles don't even realise it. There will be a temporary shortage of strontium and those places with cheap stront will be bought out. Stront will go higher than it is today.
Many Highsec manufacturers will probably hold onto their stront for a while in hopes of a bubble.
Nullsec will realise that junk called strontium they have in their hangars is actually worth something, and they will start exporting it to highsec, at least for otherwise empty return trips (it will still cost 1k isk / unit for my region in null to export stront, for a sale of 4k isk/unit)
Eventually we will reach a balance where more ice miners seek stront rather than Liquid Ozone as the bottle-neck. I am no miner, but looking at ice compositions, anything that drops stront, drops even more ozone.
A drop in liquid ozone prices should be a leading indicator for stabilizing stront prices. (This may come from lowsec / nullsec mining of strontium rich ice)
Then citadels will hit, and then there will be a significant reduction in fuel usage. It depends on whether speculators have over stockpiled as to how hard that crash is.
A good easy to use source of historical prices is at eve market data:
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