Showing posts with label speculative. Show all posts
Showing posts with label speculative. Show all posts

Tuesday, 22 April 2014

Building Better Worlds - some thoughts.

This is a speculative post, based on insufficient information.  As such it should be short, but it isn't.

The shakeup.

Industry is getting a very big shakeup.
  1. Any industry feature must have an actual gameplay attached to it in order to exist
  2. Any industry feature must be balanced around our risk versus reward philosophy
  3. Any industry feature must be easily understandable and visible to our player base
We have already had a post about:
Industry slots are going to be removed, replaced with a sliding cost scale (between 0% and 14% of the base item cost) depending on how busy the station is.

There will be simplified rules; removing extra material and damage per job.

We have been offered a hint of upcoming changes "... we have not mentioned invention or reverse engineering. That is because we could not schedule them for summer and as such are pushed to be done next in line ..."

Some POS changes

  • Allow Starbases to be anchored (almost) anywhere in high-security space and without standing requirement.
  • To use a BP in a POS, the BP must be in that POS, just like any other material
  • Players will still be able to start their jobs remotely (via relevant skills).
  • Improved Mobile Laboratories and Assembly Arrays to compensate for such risk, numbers TBA.
  • Reduced copy time on all blueprints, Will now be less time consuming than manufacturing something out of it.

We will be getting posts about:

  • Industry UI
  • Research
  • Job cost scaling
  • Teams

Our experience and hopes with POS.


Historically, we ran highsec POS for primarily for research slots, but also manufacture on the side.  We are not doing that at the moment because most of our pilots are either wormhole based or in faction warfare.

However, one of our pilots used to make a lot of T2 items in our POS, due to the faster manufacturing time.  If I recall correctly, he was using the Component Assembly Array, to have his manufacturing done in 3/4 of the NPC station time.

This POS based manufacture was profitable for our manufacturer, even after the fuel costs were taken into account.


I expect that a lot of POS being put up for compression.  However the compression time will be instant, so this will leave highsec POS idle most of the time.

Also we have been told that Mobile Labs and Assembly Arrays will be improved to compensate for this risk.  We should be able to use BPC's more and BPO's less.

All the above mean that I see more POS based manufacturing.  This in turn means that visibly busy highsec POS may become the target for wardecs.  Ensure your POS has anchored defences that will be needed at some stage.  Put aside the ISK required for mercenary defence.

As a POS based wormhole corp, these changes may be a significant buff to our play style.

It is my prayer that CCP have started to touch sufficiently on POS code to allow this that some of the other things we need will also come.  I decline to get too hopeful.

Mining, and it's impact on manufacturing.


I see the majority of mining remaining in highsec; there is simply too much AFK mining that is currently done in highsec, with a volume that I don't see occurring in any other space. 

Compression seems to have been nerfed about 25%.  The costs involved in skilling up all those jump freighters to move the existsing demand let alone the new demand from manufacturing in null should, in the short term at least, limit the amount of manufacturing being moved to null.

CSM comments

The CSM are closer to the CCP decision makers than the rest of us.  That is their role. If you want different opinions on the CSM, you should be more involved.

Ripard Teg is of the opinion that we will be moving our manufacturers into null sec renter corps. "low-sec capital producers are particularly annoyed".

Ali Aris said  The new industry system looks great"

Trebour Daehdoow also approves.

Summary (or TLDR)

I expect that clever manufacturers will come up with alternatives. A lot will be in nullsec.  Others will be in POS.

Those manufacturers that are a little tired will leave manufacturing or possibly even Eve itself.  New manufacturers will take their place.

Pos fuel, and probably most manufactured goods will have a price spike, until miners and manufactures adjust to fill the gaps.

References

I have trawled my way through the 70+ pages forum comments so you don't have to.

Instant compression was from http://community.eveonline.com/news/dev-blogs/reprocess-all-the-things/ search for "The stats for the Compression Array are below"

Improved POS slots was from http://community.eveonline.com/news/dev-blogs/building-better-worlds/, search for "Improve Mobile Laboratories and Assembly Arrays".

An overview of dev answers to common questions  https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=337246 

Individual CCP responses - some of which will be duplicates of above.

https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&m=4474431#post4474431
  • Allowing people to lock blueprints down in Starbases with current vote / lock mechanics would not be a good idea, so it won't be possible for now.
https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&m=4474637#post4474637
  • On even more abandoned (or place holding) POS "Yeah, that's a good point, we'll note that one down."
https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&m=4474654#post4474654
  • On reducing the copy time for T2 BPO's. "That's the current plan, yes." 
https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&m=4474563#post4474563
  • The idea is that there is a more dynamic spread of players invested in Industry which should lead to a more interesting and dynamic landscape.
  • Question: Can the same thing be done to trading in general with regard to sales taxes and broker fees?
    Answer : Sales tax and broker fees are a completely separate system, not something within scope of these changes though certainly an interesting idea.
https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&m=4474674#post4474674
  • Yes the new blueprint browser will show you all blueprints in stations or assembly arrays etc.
https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&m=4474681#post4474681
  • You will be able to see all your blueprints in assembly arrays etc and remotely start jobs from containers, so that should cover your use case.
  • There is also a nice search / filter interface, you will get some time on SiSi to give us feedback on how this works before we go live too.
https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&m=4474708#post4474708

  • The cost scaling will affect all build/research locations, including conquerable stations and outposts. All slot limitations are being removed everywhere in EVE, and locations that formerly had slot bonuses will receive other bonuses instead. More info on that will be in future blogs.
  • (Conquerable?) Station owners will be able to set part of the cost of running jobs (in the form of taxes), but other parts of the cost will be out of the owner's control. Costs will not ever be able to be set to zero. Again, more info on this will be available in the upcoming blogs.

https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&m=4474760#post4474760
  • The taxes go to the corp that owns the station, the scaling costs (more info will be coming in a future blog) are sunk out of the game.
https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&m=4474768#post4474768
  • Question: The industry outpost upgrades to null sec outposts (particularly, the Amarr ones) primarily focus on the increase of industry slots. With the removal of slot limitation, will you be altering the bonuses involved with these outpost upgrades?
    Answer: Yes
https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&m=4474802#post4474802
  • We're not removing the ability to lock down blueprints in your station. You can still lock down as before and build, research and copy using the infinite slots in the station. (Foo note : i.e. not POS)
https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&m=4474862#post4474862
  • You will be able to anchor towers in any system in hi sec, except systems that are restricted, like rookie systems and trade hubs like Jita. This is the same restricted list as the one that applies to POCOs for instance.
https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&m=4474875#post4474875
  • ... The UI is going to reduce the number of clicks required to both install and preview/adjust a job to almost none. Our goal was driven by the idea that we want both batch and single blueprint job installation to be painless but fun. I don't want to spoil the next few blogs so I will leave it at that.
  • As to the cost scaling based on activity in a system, I will simply say that you should notice the impact on cost of working in a busy system, but the (future) blog should go into all the detail you need.
https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&m=4475105#post4475105
  • Question: How big will the RAMs be given they are 100x more required per bpc
    Answer:  We'll have a look at volumes and keep you posted if we do any change.
  • Regarding existing RAM / RDB, yes, they'll be multiplied by 100.
https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&m=4475163#post4475163
  • You will be able to get a quote from a station you are not at, with a blueprint you don't even own.
https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&m=4475199#post4475199
  • We talk a lot about good and bad complexity within the team. A fair portion of the industry changes are pretty clear examples of removing bad complexity, while still keeping the interesting problems for players to solve.
  • Some of the changes are also centered around cleaning up years of legacy code, freeing us up to better iterate on the feature and do more sexy looking UI 
https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&m=4475330#post4475330

  • You will also get a list of locations you can install the job in the region with a way to compare their relative pricing.
https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&m=4476028#post4476028
  • POS still need to be anchored at moons.
https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&m=4476036#post4476036

  • You will be able to install (POS?) invention jobs remotely.
https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&m=4478892#post4478892
  • Question regarding BPO's based jobs in progress when the release goes live.
    Answer: The issue regarding how to migrate blueprints using starbase when the expansion hits has been noted. We'll update this thread when we have more information about this.
https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&m=4479060#post4479060
  • All extra materials are turned into regular materials, that will indeed be now affected by skills and waste. Except for Tech I ships and items, as such:
    • You should never see a Paladin require 2 Apocalypses to build
    • You should never see a Large shield Extender II require 0.75 Large Shield Extender I to build

https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&m=4479068#post4479068
  • Starbases will have reduced tax cost next to NPC station, and mobile labs / assembly array will have more efficient ME / PE lines.

All Dev, GM and CSM comments on this post can be found at https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=search&topic=Building+better+Worlds&devbadge=1&gmbadge=1&csmbadge=1

Wednesday, 2 October 2013

Highsec Customs office revisited

There have been some updates on highsec Corporate Owned Customs Offices : otherwise misnamed POCO (player owned customs offices), but I assume COCO sounds like a fashion designer or maybe a misspelling of certain drinks and food.
  • Highsec POCO can only be attacked while at war.
  • Highsec POCO can not be transferred while at war, or with war pending.
  • Base rate reduction to PI, reducing tax.  This ranges from 11% for advanced commodities to 20% for basic and refined.
  • Highsec POCO to still have NPC tax, with the new Customs Code Expertise skill enabling a NPC tax reduction from 10% to 5% on base rates.

http://community.eveonline.com/news/dev-blogs/player-owned-customs-offices-in-hi-sec

Ok, now I have parroted the CCP announcement (a lot of bloggers do stuff like that), here is my take of semi-random thoughts.

There will be a short term spike in PI as players stockpile customs office gantries and upgrades, even if they make little sense to put up for the average user.  This may spike even higher when Rubicon drops, depending on how flooded the market is by stockpiling speculators.

The reduction of base rates is a nerf to POCO owners; but does somewhat make multi planet PI more attractive where players are currently paying tax.

EDIT : http://evehermit.wordpress.com/2013/10/02/should-have-seen-that-coming/  I think Interbus tax at 17% on exports, so this would drop to around an effective 8.5%.  If this does occur, I need to re-think the value of below for PI farmers owning your own customs offices; and it's ultimate effect on end prices.

There is little value in pure PI farmers owning or even using a highsec POCO over an interbus one.  POCO's are too expensive to put up 'defensively', and for those without the means to defend, simply become a war target magnet.

After the initial land grab; there will still be highsec Interbus customs offices available, just like they are still available in lowsec and wormhole space.

The best value for a highsec POCO is for it's 'shoot me' between these times value.  Owners of customs offices can set within a 2 hour window when their customs offices will be vulnerable.

The next value I see for a highsec POCO is for existing large nullsec alliances to attempt to drive PI prices up by putting their 15% tax on all conveniently placed customs offices.  At roughly 1B ISK per system this seems to have a very poor return on investment.  Targeting all Temperate for Autotrophs/Industrial fibers, or Lava for Felsic Magma/Silicon makes some sense.  No point in specifically targeting Gas for Reactive Gas/Oxidizing Compound as there are far too many gas planets.

POCO owners that charge tax will be able to see who, the value and timing of PI collection.


Forget ice; Industrial Fiber interdictions anyone?

Finally, there might be some value in advertising to highsec PI farmers.  Some of them will click on the customs office to work out who owns what, and read the odd corporate bio.

Highsec PI farmers will get Customs Code Expertise, often to 4, reducing their tax rate to (approx?) 6%. Combined with the drop in base rates; for many players, export tax on Processed commodities will drop from 50 ISK/unit (500isk * 10%) to 24% (400 ISK * 6%), and export tax on advanced commodities will drop from 135,000 ISK/unit to (1,350,000 * 10%) to 72,000 ISK/unit (1,200,000 * 6%)

My guestimate is that the price for demand limited items like Bacteria and Biofuels will fall from roughly 90 ISK (1.8 * tax of 50 ISK)  to 45 ISK (1.8 * tax of 24 ISK).  As I said before, I don't see supply limited items falling anywhere near as much.

I do see some attempt to strangle cheap supply on Temperate and Lava planets, pushing the value of Industrial Fibers and Silicon up.

My expectation that the long term prices for advanced PI will probably drop by 15%, being a combination of more advanced PI being manufactured in highsec at lower taxes, and falling prices on some (but not all) components.


No update on attacking Interbus customs offices. I still think you should be tagged as suspect when attacking one.

Monday, 30 September 2013

Rubicon on a planetary scale

This is a speculation post.   As such it is subject to the vagaries of herd behaviour.

The single biggest change for me, is the player owned customs offices.

When bashing a customs office, you can achieve a lot given time and a t1 AFK fit glass cannon battleship or 2.  I understand that concord will not intervene, but really hope that players are given a suspect flag while shooting one.

I confess to a 'rent seeking' desire; that is, to complain about how the evils of highsec player owned customs offices will destroy wormhole/null/lowsec customs office ownership.

But it won't; not significantly.  Those doing extraction based PI will still suffer huge penalties in highsec; those wanting better returns in exchange for potentially higher risk will still seek out lowsec, null or wormholes.

There probably will be a difference in factory planets.  I can see many barren planets being set up as P4 factories, with 0% tax. 

I see many small industrialists doing so; then enjoying the attention of the bigger players, especially with planets close to trade hubs.

I have noticed already a large spike in certain P4 (advanced commodities) used in the construction of customs offices.  My personal speculation is that this will continue until after the expansion drops and the rush to build customs offices is over.

Long term, I do see a probable fall in both the P3/P4 prices, as more players do highsec import based manufacture on low/no tax planets. 


I also see a probable fall in lower priced PI commodities (Biofuels, Bacteria); as these are often lower bound by the highsec PI tax rate.

I think that the rest of the materials will remain largely as is, especially supply limited items.

There may also be a move away from single planet PI and towards multi planet PI as more players get access to reasonably taxed customs offices; I am unsure if this is enough to counteract a resurgent interest in PI long term.

Wednesday, 3 July 2013

Odyssey Tech 1 Industrials, Round 2

CCP Rise has made 'special' industrials, and given us back our second highslot.

For the record, I take cheese with my (previous) whine.  Industrialists will do what they do, with whatever tools we are given.

https://forums.eveonline.com/default.aspx?g=posts&t=252819

For me the take home notes are:
  • Bestower becomes the largest T1 hauler by a trivial amount.
  • Dedicated Mineral Bay (Iteron Mark II), PI commodities (Iteron Mark III), Ore Bay (Iteron mark IV), Ammo Array (Hoarder).
  • T1 ships are given specialities : HP, Cargo (not the Itty 5 any more), Fast.
Each trip, every visit to a WH customs office is dangerous.  As such, I have previously fit to minimise the number of trips.  Keeping enough space spare in either cargohold or customs office so that, if caught, I can dump all goods into the customs office, align to home, and get my pod to safety have been my priority.  I don't get caught often, but it happens. 

Since the patch, my goto PI hauler is the Iteron Mark V.  With the new tiericide, expanded cargoholds are no longer needed for the Iteron Mark III (PI hold of 45,000m3) to hold more than a customs office (35,000m3). No point when flying to a customs office of hauling more than it will hold.  So, another hauler fleet replacement for us.


PI and Mining haulers will also want to replace ships. I know that some will want to use the fast/tanky t1 haulers, though I thought covops frigates/haulers would be better for that role.  It probably is worth brushing off those T1 BPO's and checking their ME and PE levels.  Except for Iteron Mark V's; probably time to lose those.  It will go from best T1 to ok, but every other T1 will be better at something than it. Every T1 hauler from Jita to Null and beyond replaced ships when Odyssey hit.  They will do so again.

I also expect the Iteron Mark V, Expanded Cargohold II and Medium Cargohold Optimization I markets will fall very hard.

For those that are interested, I will list my fitting thoughts.  Feel free to laugh, I am not entirely conventional (or probably even optimal) in my fits. 

I will be changing my fits from maximum cargo to maximum escape.  No industrial has a 'real' tank, but I only need to shrug off point and survive long enough to enter warp.

The Iteron Mark III will have a Slot layout: 2H, 4M(+1), 4L(+1); 1 turrets , 0 launchers

I have PI alts with different skills.  I am not going to worry too much about exact fittings.   Some ships will be a tighter fit than others.

High slots are easy.  Cloak and core probe launcher.  These ships will not often use them, but they are there 'in case'; both for backup scanners at home in case things go horrible, and if caught in neighbouring wormholes on the way to empire space.

For low slots, I am considering 3 warp core stablisers and 1 damage control unit; though I am unsure of the exact mix I will end up with (Nanofibers for quick align is another option).


With a ship that has a chance of escape, having a (so called) decent tank, yet keeping your signature small  becomes important.  16 seconds is the base align time.  Mid slots will most likely be an adaptive invulnerability shield, with shield extenders.  I am considering a shield booster, and/or shield hardeners; in part to get that signature down.

For rigs, Screen Re-inforcers? Low Friction Nozzle Joints? Core Defense Something?  Not sure yet; I will have to do some research.  That phrase ending with 'at the expense of signature radius' on the shield rigs bothers me somewhat.


We occasionally make runs to empire space to take out mined ore;  A similar fit will be used with the Iteron Mark IV.  As our hauler pilots are already Gallente industrial inclined, we will probably stay with the Iteron class for general hauling.

My eventual fit will be influenced by reading sites like Tiger Ears, under the theory that you should keep your friends close, but your enemies closer.

Monday, 29 April 2013

The day the POS went dark

 Even if all you want to do is shoot stuff, the upcoming resource balancing changes should be significant.  Today, I am pulling out my crystal ball.

I have been reading some items on the upcoming fuel changes.

From the shakeup blog : ... the maximum supply of ice from highsec (assuming that each belt is mined out completely five times a day) would provide approximately 80% of the game's ice needs. ...
highsec will still be a large exporter of ice products, being able to generate eight times the volume of isotopes used by highsec control towers.


I am unaware of the current amount of ice or ore mined outside of highsec (though I have read figures of 1% of ore in low).  I however expect that we will not see 100% utilisation of highsec ice fields.  If nothing else highsec suicide gankers will have valuable targets. 

I have read claims that there will be no more afk ice mining.  Mmm.  To me, it looks like a player needs to pay attention 2-3 times as often, in highsec at least. 

I expect that there will be an attempt to mine ice in lowsec.  There will definitely be null mined ice.  I have heard nothing about wormholes being able to mine the stuff (I can wish).


Upward pressures on ice prices, with :
  • need to scan anomalies rather than bot to the same place every time.
  • Some ice mining moving to low/nullsec and the potential of less botting there (though that might be a claim)
The obvious downward pressure on ice prices is the increased yield.

Some of your average highsec ... protected by concord miners are likely to be replaced with  null miners (though possibly alts of the same player).  New miners need new ships and fittings.  Slightly more ore consumed between now and Odyssey.

The links from the Mittani suggest that there will be demand for another 450 or so large caldari towers and modules. More PI demand as these get built.

There should also be a scramble in nullsec as the new profitable moons are fought over.

My crystal ball is murky as to what CCP mean when they say hisec can potentially supply 80% of the game's ice needs.  Are they referring to total demand of ice products, or to each isotope?

If CCP is restricting highsec by total ice, then I see Nitrogen Isotopes being in huge demand; with Caldari towers being the highsec research tower of choice as well as (as far as I know) the reactions tower of choice.   (The alternative is that CCP allows a lot more Caldari White glaze than the other racial ice types).

My crystal ball sees many Caldari towers going dark (possibly even ours), possibly replaced with other race's towers for cheaper fuel.  I also see a continued proliferation of abandoned (but otherwise sellable) POS.

Please note: This post is labelled speculative.  Let the trader beware.