Tuesday, 20 August 2013

Goons and the Caldari Ice Interdiction

You probably heard it... the Goons are running and Ice interdiction again.

Let's look at what happened:

a) "Random Internet Space Pixel Emperor" (The Mittani) announces Ice interdiction.
b) Prices spike.
c) People sell their stocks.
d) Profit.

That is all the relevant stuff. Not a single thing more was required to make the interdiction a success. There might be some aftershocks to prices once stocks deplete, but that would be speculation to go with. The sure made profit is and has been made.

Here's some stuff not at all relevant  for the success of the Interdiction.

a) The amount of miners actually killed.
b) Creating a shortage of specific Ice.
c) The amount of roaming Goons in HiSec. (Although a few stub fleets flying around will make "the next interdiction" more likely to succeed).

And here is some stuff that is likely to be a "bonus" on a couple of levels:

a) People flying in cheap fleets ganking for "fun" or tension release.
b) Creating "fear" in people, upping chances for success of next project.
c) Upholding the "myth" of the Goons power.

Basically, the entire Interdiction had three phases, of which two are already completed: Loading, Firing and Reloading.

Loading: Setting up the Interdiction by stockpiling Ice.

Firing: Announcing the Interdiction, causing fear, speculation, greed and a multitude of other factors to rise prices.

Reloading: Actually "doing" the interdiction. By no means like announced, but on a more subtle level: You don't need to actually dent Ice volumes at all, it's just an added bonus. The more you can dent it, the better the after effects of the Interdiction (making it possible to do it again), but it's by no means a requirement. The important thing is to kill a few miners here and there, keeping up a couple of roaming gank squads, and if you want to pepper it maybe fake some killboards with alt miners that get ganked to create the impression of something actually happening. With the Goons manpower, this doesn't really require a lot because it'll be a self runner.

The last phase, which is currently running, is a lot about perceived force and its projection. It is more than enough to create a wide spread impression of being active, no need to waste resources actually doing so.

All in all: Median Nitrogen prices have gone from around 580 to 960 and higher.

It'll be interesting to see what further media coverage will do and how the Goon Meta- Team will exploit the unfolding events for future use.


  1. You are right that sending even a single Catalyst is irrelevant about the success of THIS interdiction. However failing to gank miners and create shortage ruing the next interdiction.

    1. I refrained from posting this directly because the reloading process is not constrained to an interdiction. The force they are projecting can be used for a lot of future events. I'm reasonably sure that they will try to mold it (by propaganda, false tales, and all other kind of options) towards their future plans.

      Additionally, they do have the option to use their own Null Ice products to create a (probably small but detectable) shortage. As for the Miner kills, they always have the option to fake these.

      This gives them additional outs to further create the impression of force should the desired effect be not strong enough.

      Future observers, without the knowledge of what happened, well may interpret the graphs to "it worked", although it was engineered to look so.

      In the end, as history has shown, people will mostly only remember "There was an interdiction, prices went up, there was a shortage, miners died", not considering that the initial effect was by far smaller than their memory or hearsay suggests.

  2. There is one thing I dont understand: if someone has the power to do a "real" interdiction, why would he announce it two weeks in advance?

    Announcing it in the time between the start and before the actual shortage kicks in would allow a much larger profit, because people would be caught unaware and panic. Why give them time to prepare?


    1. Some thoughts, take any one you like:
      - Profit gained is irrelevant to core CFC motivations.
      - History shows that economy shifts almost as strongly under guaranteed threat as activity.
      - Facilitating greater wealth to players who follow CFC news makes an erstwhile ally. What if those miners and industs then want to work for goons?
      - The amount of players that DON'T pay attention to world news is staggering. Burn Jita losses were ridic.
      - It will leak anyway, because spai.
      - Being up front about it is a authoritative use of power. Blindsiding people is being a bully.

    2. Profit gained is core to CFC motivations. Sufficiently core to be the justification for war.

      Sufficient to justify system rental.

  3. I think that OutOf's post is that the interdiction is about fear, uncertainty and doubt.

    Stockpile ice.
    Announce interdiction.
    Sell ice.
    Gank someone; anyone.


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